Abbreviated Pundit Round-up

Visual Source: Newseum

Nate Silver:

I do not mean to suggest that the unemployment numbers are unimportant as a news story. To the contrary, recent polls find that four times as many people list jobs rather than the budget deficit as a top priority, even though the latter issue has gotten more press attention lately.

But if you?re going to write about the jobs numbers as a horse race story, you ought to do it right, and that means keeping an eye on the big picture.

In fact, looked at in the most literal way ? how much President Obama?s re-election chances changed between 8:29 a.m. today and 8:30 a.m., when the numbers were released ? the impact is probably quite minor. At the betting market Intrade, the contract on Mr. Obama?s 2012 chances has declined in value only barely, to implying a 57.9 percent chance of re-election from a 58.4 percent chance before the jobs numbers were published.

Another Nate observation:

Nancy Pelosi hasn?t had very many opportunities to influence policy in the 112th Congress. Republicans have too large a majority, and vote too uniformly on most issues, for Democratic votes in the House to make much difference. Instead, the Democrats? veto points are in the Senate and in the White House.

But the vote to raise the federal debt limit, which now seems tied inexorably to efforts to reduce the national debt, is one exception. We?ve run through these numbers before, but they?re worth revisiting now that we may be getting closer to a deal.

A.C. Grayling:

Mr. Murdoch?s achievement was to take the tabloid press from the gutter into the sewer, widening its range from coverage of celebrity scandals to the performance of criminal acts. Some of the latter, such as hacking into the phones of crime victims and their families, were appalling.

Kathleen Parker:

Republicans have made enormous advances toward government reforms that were viewed as unachievable a year ago. Voting no may have become the aphrodisiac of small-government conservatives, but it is not necessarily an act of bravery or wisdom.

Sometimes it?s just stubborn.

Forbes/AP:

[CT Gov] Malloy said "hundreds" of state employees had already received layoff notices. With the submission of the agency budget-cutting plans, he said "large scale layoffs" will begin next week. Connecticut has more than 50,000 workers, both unionized and nonunionized. Many are not expected to leave the state payroll until September because of the various notifications required by unions and employees' right to bump less senior co-workers.

Dave Weigel on Michele Bachmann and eschatology.

Stephen Dworkin (my son):

Despite the media?s waning obsession with the scandal surrounding New York Congressman Anthony Weiner that ultimately led to his resignation on June 16, environmental activists? concerns about what his loss might mean for their causes continue to grow.

Weiner had a strong environmental record during his 12 years serving in the U.S. House of Representatives. He defended the Endangered Species Act; supported the Obama administration?s popular ?Cash for Clunkers? program that helped Americans exchange old cars for more fuel-efficient models; and helped prevent the slaughter of 30,000 previously protected wild horses by the Bureau of Land Management. He scored a 90% with the League of Conservation Voters, a non-partisan national organization dedicated to pushing environmental legislation. Weiner?s environmental work also included the implementation of the removal of toxic PCBs from the Hudson River in New York; opposition to a plan to thin out forests to prevent wildfires?which Weiner called ?reckless?; and the funding of environmental education for children.

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